Who to captain — GW11
| # | Player | xP | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland MCI · vs FUL (H) Premium pick (£15.8m) · 7.6 points per appearance · 0.84 xG+xA per 90 · Easy fixture: FUL (H) | 6.8 | 79.2% |
| 2 | N.Jackson AVL · vs SUN (H) Easy fixture: SUN (H) · In form (6.6) | 5.0 | 28.6% |
| 3 | Evanilson BOU · vs NFO (H) 5.8 points per appearance · Home vs NFO · In form (6.8) | 4.9 | 22.1% |
| 4 | Palmer CHE · vs LEE (H) Premium pick (£9.8m) · Home vs LEE | 4.6 | 28.5% |
| 5 | Rogers CHE · vs LEE (H) 5.6 points per appearance · Home vs LEE | 4.6 | 53.8% |
| 6 | Thiago BRE · vs EVE (H) 0.60 xG+xA per 90 · Home vs EVE | 4.5 | 9.0% |
| 7 | Tavernier BOU · vs NFO (H) 6.1 points per appearance · 0.61 xG+xA per 90 · Home vs NFO | 4.4 | 30.6% |
| 8 | Rice ARS · vs NEW (A) | 4.3 | 13.5% |
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How we rank captains
Rankings blend expected points (xP) from our projection model with fixture difficulty, penalty duty, minutes security and recent underlying numbers (xG + xA per 90). The poll shows what FPL Picks readers are doing this week; ownership shows the effective field you are competing against.
FAQ
Should I ever captain a differential?
Only when you need to make up ground. A low-owned captain with similar expected points can swing a mini-league, but over a season the highest expected-points choice is the steadier bet.
What is xP and how is it calculated?
Expected points (xP) is our model’s estimate of a player’s points next gameweek. It combines points per appearance, recent form, xG+xA per 90, share of minutes, fixture difficulty, venue and price, fitted on past seasons. In out-of-sample tests it tracked real points better than FPL’s form-based estimate; it is a guide, not a guarantee.
When do captain picks update?
Every 15 minutes from the official FPL data. Injury flags, prices and fixture changes feed straight into the model, so late team news shows up as soon as FPL updates a player’s status.