FPL GW1 Scout Picks 2025/26
FPL GW1 Scout Picks 2025/26 – Deep‑Dive Using My Personalised 3‑4‑3
A strong opening weekend can compound for months, so this season I’m publishing a full FPL GW1 Scout Picks deep‑dive built on a real squad, not a hypothetical draft. The build leans into a heavy‑hitters + differentials philosophy to protect rank downside while still giving me a chance to push ahead of the template.
My actual XI
Formation: 3‑4‑3
Captain: Erling Haaland (C)
Vice‑captain: Cole Palmer (VC)
Starting XI: Sels; Wan‑Bissaka, Pedro Porro, Aït‑Nouri; Kudus, Palmer, Reijnders, Wirtz; Haaland, Watkins, João Pedro.
Bench (1→3): Dewsbury‑Hall, Konsa, Rodon; GK2: Dúbravka.
In what follows I’ll explain why these FPL GW1 Scout Picks make sense in the present fixture landscape, what roles each player is expected to perform, the risks I’m taking, and the early transfer routes I’ve ring‑fenced.
Methodology & Principles for FPL GW1 Scout Picks
1) Start with fixtures, minutes, and role. Pre‑season stats matter, but they’re noisy; I weight them behind fixture quality (home vs away, opponent defensive profile), minutes certainty (nailed 80–90 mins vs rotation), and tactical role (set‑pieces, penalties, box entries, progressive passing).
2) Respect the two‑per‑club limit. This keeps optionality for early bandwagons. I’m double‑up Chelsea (Palmer, João Pedro) and Manchester City (Haaland, Reijnders) because both have elite ceiling paths in GW1 while still preserving future flexibility.
**3) Embrace the new Defensive Contribution scoring. Clearances/blocks/interceptions/tackles (CBIT) raise defender floors and can turbo‑charge bonus. That’s a key reason I like Wan‑Bissaka and Aït‑Nouri alongside Porro’s attacking thrust.
4) Heavy hitters + differentials. I anchor on Haaland and Palmer, then add mid‑price/flexible pieces (Kudus, Reijnders, Wirtz). The aim is to carry high‑probability points without turning fully template.
GW1 Fixture Lens (What I’m Targeting)
- Chelsea v Crystal Palace (H): A control‑heavy home match that should funnel creativity through Cole Palmer; stacking with João Pedro amplifies returns if Chelsea score 2+.
- Spurs v Burnley (H): Newly‑promoted opponent at an aggressive ground = prime territory for attacking full‑back Pedro Porro and attacking mid Mohammed Kudus (listed in my team for the great home opener).
- Liverpool v Bournemouth (H): A plum debut platform for Florian Wirtz in a possession‑dominant system; even one assist plus bonus is on the cards.
- Forest v Brentford (H): Save volume plus a realistic clean‑sheet chance for Matz Sels; Forest CBs tend to farm DC, which is good for bonus pathways if the CS lands.
- Villa v Newcastle (H): Ollie Watkins profits from transition lanes at Villa Park; Ezri Konsa (bench) is a live set‑piece threat if pressed into service.
- Wolves v Man City (A): Tricky away day but the ceiling remains elite for Erling Haaland; Tijjani Reijnders is a cost‑efficient route into City chance creation.
Goalkeepers – FPL GW1 Scout Picks
Matz Sels (NFO) – v Brentford (H)
Forest at home is a different beast. Sels gives me three outs:
- Saves – Brentford rarely go completely passive; a 3–4 save baseline is realistic.
- Clean sheet – Forest improved defensive structure down the stretch; against a mid‑table attack, a 0–0/1–0 is live.
- Bonus – If DC stacks up in front of him (CBIT actions), Sels can pinch a bonus even in a 1–0.
He’s a pragmatic pick over splashing on a premium ‘keeper, freeing funds for midfield/forward firepower – exactly the trade‑off I want in GW1.
Martin Dúbravka (GK2) – @ Spurs (A)
At £4.0m he’s an enabler. I don’t plan to play a bench ‘keeper early, so the only job here is to be cheap and available. Spend your money in the front seven where volatility pays better.
Defenders – FPL GW1 Scout Picks
Pedro Porro (Spurs) – v Burnley (H)
Porro might be the most obvious GW1 defender. His profile is almost winger‑like: cross volume, under‑laps into the box, and set‑piece involvement. Against a promoted defence, Spurs should pin the back line and create repeated cut‑back situations. That gives Porro multiple scoring avenues: clean sheet + assist, or even a shot from the half‑space leading to bonus.
Tactical note: When Spurs face low blocks, Porro often ends up delivering from advanced zones; his key pass numbers typically pop in these contexts. He’s locked as a starting defender for me.
Aaron Wan‑Bissaka (listed v SUN A)
This is my first big differential in defence. Regardless of the badge on his shirt in your database, the underlying appeal is the same: elite tackling and 1v1 defensive wins. Those produce DC points reliably. Away to a promoted side, AWB’s defensive workload should be high enough to create a bonus route even without attacking returns. If he adds a chance‑created or a shot from a cut‑back, we’re looking at an 8–9 pointer.
Risk: Low attacking ceiling compared to Porro. Mitigation: Price point is flexible; there’s an easy downgrade/sideways route to other 4.5–5.0 defenders if necessary in GW2–3.
Rayan Aït‑Nouri (Wolves)
Aït‑Nouri is my ceiling‑seeking full‑back: aggressive carries, overlaps and late box entries. In open games he adds creative actions from the left channel. He’s the classic GW1 bet where you’re paid either way.
Structure note: With Porro’s direct attacking output and AWB’s DC entry, Aït‑Nouri completes a back three that mixes one high‑floor pick with two routes to spike hauls.
Midfielders – FPL GW1 Scout Picks
Cole Palmer (Chelsea) – v Crystal Palace (H) – Vice‑captain
Palmer is the creative hub and penalty‑taker, which is a perfect captaincy profile and an anchor even when he’s not wearing the armband. I expect Chelsea to control territory at Stamford Bridge, with Palmer drifting between the right half‑space and central pockets to link with runners. He ticks all the boxes: minutes security, set‑pieces, xGI share, and bonus friendliness.
Stacking logic: Pairing Palmer with João Pedro means an assist can double‑count into a forward return. In a 2–0 home win scenario, that stack can be decisive.
Mohammed Kudus (listed v BUR H)
Kudus gives me the explosive mid‑price swing. He carries, dribbles and shoots at volume, and he’s flexible across the right and central lanes. Against a newly‑promoted back line, individual quality can overwhelm structure.
Variance warning: Kudus can be streaky. That’s fine in GW1 – you want exposure to a couple of high‑ceiling profiles before the market fully prices them in.
Tijjani Reijnders (Man City) – @ Wolves (A)
This is the value route into City’s chance creation. Reijnders offers progressive passing and smart late arrivals at the edge of the box. While City away isn’t the softest fixture, the probability that City create 1.5–2.0 xG remains high, which makes any nailed City attacker or advanced midfielder worth his slot. Reijnders gives me that at a discount, allowing Haaland to be funded without sacrificing balance elsewhere.
Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) – v Bournemouth (H)
If you’re going to bet on a debut, do it at Anfield against Bournemouth. Wirtz’s Bundesliga profile – progressive carries, through‑balls, shots from zone 14 – translates beautifully to a team that flood the half‑spaces.
Contingency: If Liverpool’s shape looks off in the Community Shield‑style dress rehearsal, he’s an easy pivot to a talismanic 8.0–8.5 mid in GW2.
Forwards – FPL GW1 Scout Picks
Erling Haaland (Man City) – @ Wolves (A) – Captain
You don’t need a paragraph to justify Haaland, but here it is anyway. His xG per 90, shot maps (central, 6‑yard box heavy) and penalty duty make him the premier captain almost every week. Away at Wolves is one of the few match‑ups where some managers wobble – that’s fine. I prefer the bankable ceiling in GW1 and will let my differentials do the separating.
Captaincy tie‑breakers I used:
- Repeatability: Haaland’s routes to 10+ points are multi‑path (open play, pens, bonus).
- Role security: 80–90 mins even if City lead.
- Ownership dynamics: Heavily owned captains reduce red‑arrow risk if the rest of your XI is already slightly spicy.
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) – v Newcastle (H)
Watkins is my consistency engine. He plays 90, presses, links and attacks space. Newcastle can be aggressive away from home, which leaves Villa with transition windows; Watkins is elite at timing runs across the CB’s blindside. He also stacks nicely with Konsa (bench) for set‑piece variance – any flick‑on or second ball can turn into a return.
João Pedro (Chelsea) – v Crystal Palace (H)
This is the swing pick that makes the Chelsea stack hum. If he starts centrally or off the left, the run patterns link directly with Palmer’s passing angles. In GW1, minutes are always the main worry; as long as he’s in the projected XI, I love the upside.
Bench & Rotation Strategy
First sub – Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall (LEE A): Reliable 90s and potential set‑piece involvement. If any attacker is a late doubt, KDH comes in first.
Second sub – Ezri Konsa (NEW H): Strong for 1–2 headers per match on attacking corners; if early team news signals rotation in attack, Konsa can be promoted for a 4‑4‑2.
Third sub – Joe Rodon (EVE H): Depth for emergencies – playable in the right home fixture but mainly a minutes buffer.
GK2 – Dúbravka (TOT A): Pure enabler.
Bench order rule of thumb: Prioritise certain 90‑minute midfielders over marginal defenders in away fixtures. Re‑order if the defender has special set‑piece value.
Captaincy Rationale – Haaland (C) vs Palmer (VC)
The captaincy decision in FPL GW1 Scout Picks came down to Ceiling vs Fixture. Palmer’s home match is arguably cleaner, and his set‑piece/penalty combo is elite. But Haaland’s distribution of outcomes is fatter in the tail – more 13–20 point games – and in a week where my XI already includes several differentials (Wirtz, Kudus, Aït‑Nouri/AWB), I prefer Haaland (C) to stabilise the range and Palmer (VC) preserves a strong fallback.
Risk Management, Pivots & Early Transfer Routes
- No early Wildcard. GW1–2 is for information gathering: set‑piece takers, role tweaks, and actual line‑ups.
- 0.5–1.0m buffer (if possible). Even a small bank lets you jump on a £0.5 price rise without a hit. If your exact funds are tight, plan one likely downgrade (e.g., swap a defender to a 4.0 starter) to create headroom.
- João Pedro minutes pivot. If he’s benched or pulled early, the cleanest move is a 6.5–7.5 forward who’s nailed (monitor Strand Larsen, Evanilson, Wood).
- Wirtz form check. If Liverpool’s shape hasn’t bedded in by GW2, pre‑plan a pivot to a talismanic mid (Bruno‑type).
- Aït‑Nouri/AWB flexibility. Any 4.5–5.0 defender who reveals a set‑piece role or explosive DC profile is a valid swap in GW2–3 without breaking the structure.
Template vs Differential – Are We Different Enough?
You don’t win FPL in August, but you can lose momentum by going too rogue or too template. This FPL GW1 Scout Picks build occupies the middle lane:
- Template anchors: Haaland, Palmer, Porro, Watkins.
- Ownership‑friendly but not oppressive: Sels, Reijnders.
- Differentials with real roles: Kudus (home v promoted), Aït‑Nouri (DC + overlaps), Wan‑Bissaka (DC magnet), João Pedro (stack with Palmer), Wirtz (plum debut).
The goal isn’t to be 100% unique; it’s to be unique in the right places – positions where the spread of outcomes is wide and the upside is meaningful (wide forwards, creative mids, attacking full‑backs).
Micro‑Edges to Squeeze Out in GW1
- Late team news discipline. Decide in advance what news actually triggers a change. “Might be rotated” won’t cut it; “confirmed benching” does.
- Submit early, tweak late. Save a copy of your current draft; if the site buckles near deadline, you can revert quickly.
- Bonus awareness. Players who stack DC actions (CBIT) are now more live for bonus in 1–0/0–0 scenarios. That changes defender valuations in tight fixtures.
- Stacking with intention. Palmer + João Pedro is a deliberate micro‑stack; if you also carry the Chelsea ‘keeper/defender, you over‑correlate. Keep balance.
Conclusion – The Right Kind of Different
This FPL GW1 Scout Picks build aims to be predictably strong where it matters and selectively different where volatility is profitable. The captaincy sits with Haaland, two‑club stacks are intentional (Chelsea attack, City attack), and the defence mixes a high‑assist full‑back with two DC‑friendly profiles. The bench is designed for minutes security rather than fireworks, and the transfer plan is mapped for the common GW1 pain points (minutes surprises, debut teething problems).
GW1 isn’t about winning the season in one go. It’s about creating a sturdy platform that gathers information while still giving you chances to spike. Good luck, enjoy the football, and may your first arrows be green.
